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STATE BALLOT INITIATIVE

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Situation

A petition was started to introduce an initiative on a statewide ballot in November of 2015.  The ballot would change primary election dates to make the time period between primary and general elections shorter.  We were hired to prevent this.

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Strategy

To introduce an initiative on a statewide ballot, a group must garner 25,000 valid voter signatures. In June of 2015, approximately 30,000 handwritten signatures were presented to the state secretary’s office in support of introducing the ballot initiative. We used a SQL database, ran transcribed petitions against the voter file, and returned confidence scores of each record’s legitimacy based on state law.

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Outcome

Our analysis returned a low confidence record, with approximately 18 percent of the petition’s signatures falling below 51 percent confidence. With this data, we have positioned our client to disqualify approximately 5,400 of the handwritten signatures – enough to put the petition below the 25,000 benchmark and prevent the initiative from appearing on the statewide ballot in November of 2015.

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